The Java and Bali PPKM policies are still running to reduce the spike in Covid-19 cases. Based on available data, mobility is still a factor that affects the decline in the number of Covid-19 cases. However, looking at the facts after the PPKM policy, in Yogyakarta, the number of people staying at home increased by 6% only. This figure is not high enough to reduce the transmission of Covid-19.
At the time of PPKM, the vaccination program was still being promoted. The type of free vaccine received by the community is mainly Sinovac. The use of this vaccine aims to create herd immunity in Indonesia. Based on the theory, 70% of the population should be immune to achieve herd immunity.
“With the Sinovac efficacy of 65% and the target population of 188 million people receiving the vaccine, the actual number of immunity is 122.2 million people. This figure is not enough to reach the state of herd immunity,” said UGM epidemiologist Dr. Riris Andono Ahmad at the webinar of the 52nd Anniversary of the UGM Faculty of Animal Science on Wednesday (14/7).
Riris explained that another consideration is that herd immunity will form if the target for vaccine administration is still within the duration of immunity. Based on past research, natural immunity from Covid-19 is relatively short.
“Looking at the current condition of Indonesia, it is quite difficult to achieve herd immunity,” he said.
In the future scenario, said Riris, the pandemic will last long enough so that the fatality of the Covid-19 will decrease and the disease will become seasonal flu. It is similar to the Spanish flu, which is still present today.
For this reason, a strategy in reference to the Swiss cheese Model is needed with various interventions to reduce Covid-19 cases. We have done together with the use of vaccines and proper health protocols.
“The 3M and 3T strategies, reducing mobility, and vaccinations must continue to control the number of Covid-19 cases. This step must be carried out in harmony with both the government and the community. We hope that the transmission of Covid-19 in Indonesia can be controlled,” he added.
Source: https://ugm.ac.id/id/berita/21398-herd-immunity-sulit-terjadi
